How an oil-supply crisis could bring about an investment boom

NEWDELHI- THIS YEAR was supposed to be miserable for oil companies. Brent crude was forecast to fall below a barrel, down from in 2025 and in 2024, amid a “super glut” in supply. Instead Donald Trump’s war in the Gulf has propelled prices into triple digits. Many analysts now expect them to average or more in 2026; some anticipate 0 a barrel if shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue. On September 11th Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, an alternative route for its oil, after a drone attack.
An abandoned oil well is pictured in Maracaibo, Zulia state, Venezuela on September 7, 2026. Venezuela and US signed an agreement granting US access to more than 65 billion barrels -- almost 20 percent -- of oil in Venezuela, which holds the largest proven reserves in the world.
An abandoned oil well is pictured in Maracaibo, Zulia state, Venezuela on September 7, 2026. Venezuela and US signed an agreement granting US access to more than 65 billion barrels -- almost 20 percent -- of oil in Venezuela, which holds the largest proven reserves in the world.
The price surprise has proved a boon to the industry. Shares in oil-and-gas businesses worldwide have risen by an aggregate 40% since the start of the year, compared with 12% for listed companies as a whole (see chart 1). The combined profits of the West’s seven biggest integrated oil companies plus Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned colossus, hit bn in the second quarter of 2026, twice their level a year earlier.